A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
