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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd